Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 9.675004 11.104496 12.643116 14.418770 16.407769 18.563294 21.072220
2025-12-07 7.675299 9.633649 11.904314 14.716961 18.091524 21.993408 26.828614
2025-12-14 6.457295 8.595302 11.197121 14.569063 18.793020 23.876577 30.421102
2025-12-21 5.303924 7.462973 10.212221 13.927456 18.768509 24.809181 32.855431
2025-12-28 4.813522 7.090536 10.099736 14.306514 19.963979 27.228774 37.168378
2026-01-04 4.366624 6.713348 9.923389 14.552904 20.960433 29.404062 41.237065
2026-01-11 3.882699 6.222095 9.530128 14.444959 21.434970 30.872701 44.398109
2026-01-18 3.462113 5.773025 9.145769 14.299448 21.818304 32.201965 47.393763
2026-01-25 3.141567 5.437808 8.889616 14.303142 22.388298 33.786713 50.778989
2026-02-01 2.890427 5.182759 8.725693 14.418613 23.107502 35.591761 54.525133
2026-02-08 2.622323 4.871531 8.445516 14.328130 23.500345 36.926103 57.630638
2026-02-15 2.378444 4.574842 8.160698 14.202138 23.817804 38.145280 60.595336
2026-02-22 2.199476 4.376096 8.023944 14.309069 24.510935 39.970665 64.562307
2026-03-01 2.091601 4.292537 8.070340 14.712931 25.687516 42.571877 69.793080
2026-03-08 1.893251 4.022729 7.776470 14.526780 25.898554 43.686257 72.787001
2026-03-15 1.646919 3.636078 7.246450 13.899974 25.347504 43.576089 73.870146
2026-03-22 1.574762 3.578641 7.296261 14.273551 26.466910 46.139965 79.213346
2026-03-29 1.490482 3.488171 7.277467 14.521202 27.379784 48.400101 84.145711
2026-04-05 1.366931 3.304264 7.069517 14.412837 27.671029 49.653516 87.498602
2026-04-12 1.250555 3.122787 6.850942 14.267830 27.884795 50.778334 90.670065
2026-04-19 1.161714 2.991201 6.718184 14.271438 28.355743 52.341213 94.602214
2026-04-26 1.092224 2.895170 6.647889 14.386715 29.027781 54.261154 99.180825
2026-05-03 1.007592 2.755332 6.477538 14.296396 29.317081 55.532149 102.705683